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generate a forecast of booking demand by booking class for the specific departure. These
forecasts by booking class, together with estimates of the revenue value of each booking
class, are then fed into an optimization model which calculates the recommended booking
limits for each booking class on the flight departure in question. At the same time, the
demand forecasts are fed into an overbooking model, which also makes use of historical
information about passenger no-show rates for the same flight leg and day of week to
calculate an optimal overbooking level for the future flight departure. Both the booking
class limits and overbooking levels are calculated by the mathematical models and then
summarized as recommendations to the RM analyst.
All third-generation RM systems revise their forecasts and booking limits at regu-
lar intervals during the flight booking process, as often as daily in some cases. Actual
AIRLINE REVENUE MANAGEMENT SYSTEM
92 Fundamentals of Pricing and Revenue Management
bookings for the future flight are compared to the demand forecasts generated by the
system. Should unexpected booking activity occur, the system reforecasts demand and
reoptimizes its booking limit recommendations. A substantial proportion of the revenue
gain attributable to fare mix optimization comes from this dynamic revision of booking
limits. Human intervention to override the recommended booking limits is important in
unusual circumstances (e.g., a surge in demand related to a special event), but most air-
lines tend to overmanage their booking limits based on human judgment, which can
lead to reduced revenue gains from the RM system.
Based on a variety of empirical studies and simulation experiments performed by air-
lines and academics alike, it is now commonly accepted that proper use of an RM system
can lead to airline revenue increases of 4 to 6% (Belobaba, 1989: Smith et al., 1992).
This revenue gain comes from better seat inventory management - both overbooking and
fare class booking limits, with effectively no increase in flight operating costs.
Beyond the obvious incremental revenue benefits, the use of RM systems allows for
better tactical matching of demand vs. supply by the airline. Booking limits on lower
fare classes applied to high-demand flights can help to channel low-fare demand to empty
flights, resulting in more even load factor distributions. By shifting low-fare demand to
emptier flights, the RM system protects seats for highest-far
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